A Look At 'Gloomy Goldman's' 20 'Safety' Stocks

A recent Marketwatch article, titled “Gloomy Goldman offers 20 ‘safety’ stocks with valuations below the previous 2 bear markets,” listed 20 “safety stocks” that Goldman Sachs (GS) chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin proposed for a potential downturn. According to Kostin, the companies are not only large and have strong balance sheets, they are also cheap:

'…[their] price/earnings multiple after a 20% haircut to expected 2023 earnings is below the forward p/e at the bottom of either or both of the March 2009 and March 2020 bear markets.

“Importantly, given the different real interest rate environments, the highlighted stocks are more attractively valued today on a yield gap basis relative to the rest of the index than they were in either 2009 or 2020,” said Kostin and the team.'

A stock that is cheaper than in 2009 and/or 2020 does sound cheap! In that context, I looked at the list...(Read More)

A Valuation Of Chesapeake Energy Based On Its Reserves

Happy New Year's Eve, everyone! I just had my first SeekingAlpha article published in over a year; I hope you all enjoy it!

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For many investors, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) needs no introduction. Under its founder Aubrey McClendon, the company pioneered the use of fracking to extract oil and natural gas from shale deposits. Later, in June 2020, the company went bankrupt. The company exited bankruptcy in February 2021 and its stock has risen since then by around 40%.

Historically, post-bankruptcy stocks have outperformed the market, which makes Chesapeake Energy’s stock interesting. To see if it might outperform the market, we need to know if the company is undervalued. We can know that by looking at its oil and gas reserves, which are the company’s ultimate source of value. If Chesapeake is trading at less than the value of its reserves, its stock may outperform in the future. (Read More)

SandRidge Mississippian Trust II Is Dissolving, Leaving Investors With Large Losses And Important Lessons

SandRidge Mississippian Trust II (SDR) (SDRMU) announced in late January 2020 it would dissolve by the end of 2020.

SDR owns oil and natural gas royalty interests in the Mississippian formation of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. These interests entitle SDR to royalty payments out of the income from 273 oil and gas wells drilled by SandRidge Energy (SD), the trust’s sponsor. Most of this royalty income is then distributed to the owners of the trust’s units (shares).

Once the trust is dissolved, SandRidge Mississippian Trust II’s unitholders will not get any more distributions. This will leave many of them, including investors who bought units in the trust’s IPO, with a large loss on their investment. This loss offers important lessons for future investors, especially investors in IPOs, the oil and gas industry, and in high yield stocks. (Read More)

Comparing Whiting Petroleum's Post-Bankruptcy Enterprise Value To Its Reserves

On April 1^st, Whiting Petroleum Corporation (WLL) announced it was going bankrupt. In late April, it announced how the company will be split between current lenders and shareholders after bankruptcy.

Based on the company’s bond prices, we can estimate the post-bankruptcy Whiting Petroleum’s enterprise value. We can then compare that enterprise value to the value of the company’s oil and gas reserves.

In doing so, we can see how the market is valuing those reserves. Using that valuation, we can guess what other distressed oil and gas companies’ reserves might be worth in bankruptcy. (Read More)

Equinor, One Of The Greenest Oil Majors, Could Be Undervalued

Norwegian company Equinor (EQNR) (STOHF), once named Statoil, is one of the greenest big oil companies. Morningstar’s January 2020 report “Understanding the Emissions Challenge” evaluated each of the oil majors based on several metrics for carbon emissions reduction. Equinor was the only company to score in the top third in each metric.

In that context, I wanted to look at the company’s investment value. Equinor has three sources of value. The first is its Exploration and Production (E&P) operations, which explore for and produce oil and natural gas. The second is its Marketing, Midstream, and Processing (MMP) segment, which transports, processes, and sells oil, gas, and electricity. Finally, the company’s Other segment develops renewable energy projects and new oil and gas technologies, and also handles other corporate functions.

By adding up the value of these three parts, we can calculate the Equinor’s valuation. That valuation turns out to be around the same as the company’s enterprise value, which means Equinor could be undervalued. (Read More)

Southwestern Energy Might Have Difficulty With One Of Its Debt Covenants At The End Of The Year

In my two most recent articles, I described how anyone considering an oil and gas investment right now must answer two questions:

1. Is it cheap?
2. Is it likely to survive the current downturn, especially without diluting investors?

In an earlier article, I answered the first question for Southwestern Energy (SWN). I described how the company looks cheap when you compare its enterprise value to the value of its underground oil and natural gas reserves.

In my last article, I began answering the second question for Southwestern. I looked at how the company’s hedging contracts might affect its estimated 2020 revenues. By estimating the company’s revenues for this year, we can see if the company will earn enough to service its debts.

There are two areas of concern here:

1. Will the company have enough earnings to cover its interest expenses?
2. Will the company have enough earnings to meet its debt covenants?

If Southwestern can answer “yes” to both questions, it is likely to survive the current downturn, at least through the end of 2020. If the answer to either question is “no,” the company’s survival will be in the hands of its creditors. (Read More)

A Look At Southwestern Energy's 2020 Hedges

In my last article, I described how anyone considering an oil and gas investment right now must answer two questions:

1. Is it cheap?
2. Is it likely to survive the current downturn, especially without diluting investors?

In that article, I answered the first question for Southwestern Energy (SWN). I described how the company looks cheap when you compare its enterprise value to the value of its underground oil and gas reserves.

To answer the second question for Southwestern, we need to know if the company will earn enough this year to service its debts. There are two areas of concern here:

1. Will the company have enough earnings to cover its interest expenses?
2. Will the company have enough earnings to meet its debt covenants?

If Southwestern can answer “yes” to both questions, it is likely to survive the current downturn, at least through the end of 2020. If the answer to either question is “no,” the company’s survival will be in the hands of its creditors.

To calculate Southwestern’s 2020 earnings, we need to look at the company’s price hedges. Those hedges are meant to protect the company from oil and gas price declines, and may be key to giving the company enough earnings to service its debts. Only if we know the impact of those hedges on the company’s revenues will we be able to calculate the company’s earnings. (Read More)

A Look At Southwestern Energy's Reserves

With the recent fall in oil and gas prices, many investors are looking for bargains in the industry. One company that has drawn interest is Southwestern Energy (SWN).

For an oil and gas company such as Southwestern to be a good investment right now, I think it must answer two questions:

1. Is it cheap?
2. Is it likely to survive the current downturn, especially without diluting investors?

Answering the first question tells an investor if they might earn above average returns by investing in the company. Answering the second tells an investor how likely it is they will earn those returns, rather than losing most or all of their money.

To answer the first question for Southwestern, we will compare the company’s enterprise value to the value of its underground oil and gas reserves. (Read More)

Occidental Petroleum Is Even More Expensive Relative To Its Reserves Than I First Thought

For my 30th Seeking Alpha article, I revisit Occidental Petroleum by taking another look at the company's valuation relative to its reserves:

In my recent article “Occidental Petroleum is Surprisingly Expensive Relative to Its Reserves,” I compared the company’s enterprise value to the value of its underground oil and natural gas reserves. I then made the same comparison for several other large oil companies. Even though Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is much riskier than those companies due to its high debt levels, its enterprise value to reserve value ratio was not much cheaper.

In calculating Occidental’s enterprise value in that article, I left out Occidental’s roughly 10 billion dollars in preferred stock. Warren Buffett (BRK.A) (BRK.B) bought this stock to help finance Occidental’s August 2019 acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum, and I only noticed my omission while writing my follow-up article “A Valuation of Occidental Petroleum Based On Its Three Sources of Value.”

Fortunately, including that preferred stock in the calculation doesn’t weaken my original thesis. It actually makes it stronger. My original thesis was that the company's enterprise value to reserve value ratio was surprisingly high, and now it's even higher. This article will look at that revised EV/Reserves ratio and compare it to the EV/Reserves ratios of some other integrated oil companies, taking into account the various companies’ share price changes in the past three weeks. In doing so, we will see how expensive Occidental Petroleum is now compared to those other companies. (Read More)

A Valuation Of Occidental Petroleum Based On Its Three Sources Of Value

Of the companies impacted by the recent oil price collapse, Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) story might be the most dramatic. The company bought Anadarko Petroleum in August 2019 to become America’s fourth largest oil and gas company. Since then, its shares have fallen by over 60%, in part due to concerns over the debt the company took on for that deal. Even the company's bonds have collapsed. Occidental’s bonds due in 2049 have dropped by over 50% in the past year. Such low prices imply many bondholders think the company will go bankrupt.

Of course, not everyone feels so negatively about the company. Six “Bullish” or “Very Bullish” articles were written about Occidental on Seeking Alpha in March alone, and three more in April. After all, much of the fall in the company’s shares has been caused by the recent oil price collapse. If oil prices go back up again, it is plausible that investors who buy now could triple their money. It's also worth noting that both Carl Icahn (IEP) and Warren Buffett (BRK.A) (BRK.B) are invested in the company, which gives even more impetus to whose who think that the company will do well as an investment.  

With so many diverging opinions about Occidental’s future, I think it is important to remember the company’s fundamentals. Occidental has three sources of value...(Read More)

Occidental Petroleum Is Surprisingly Expensive Relative To Its Reserves

In my recent article “Drilling for Oil in the Stock Market,” I compared the enterprise values of the oil “supermajors” to the value of their reserves—the oil and natural gas they own underground.

A company’s enterprise value is the value of all the money invested in the company by both shareholders and lenders. It equals the company’s market capitalization, which is what all its stock is worth, plus the face value of its debt minus the company’s cash (also known as its “net debt”).

Enterprise value is a good metric to compare to an oil company’s reserves because ultimately, both lenders and shareholders have a claim on the company’s assets, including those reserves. This is particularly important if the company is at risk of bankruptcy. In comparing the supermajors’ enterprise values to their reserve values, I wasn’t implying they might go bankrupt. Rather, I wanted to see how an acquirer might appraise them. However, there is a major oil company which is in financial difficulty—Occidental Petroleum (OXY). (Read More)

A Valuation Of BP Based On Its 4 Sources Of Value

In my last article, “Drilling for Oil in the Stock Market,” I wrote that some of the world’s largest oil companies are trading for little more than the value of their oil and gas reserves. My analysis looked at each company’s enterprise value—the value of all of the money invested in the company by both shareholders and lenders, minus the company’s cash. When an oil company’s enterprise value is the same as the value of its reserves, you essentially get the rest of the company’s assets for free when you buy the company’s stock.

Of the five oil supermajors—Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (RDS.B), Exxon Mobil (XOM), BP (BP), Total (TOT), and Chevron (CVX)—analyzed in that article, BP was the cheapest on an enterprise value to reserve basis. BP is divided into four segments—its Upstream segment, its Downstream segment, its Other Businesses and Corporate segment, and its Rosneft holdings. By looking at each of these segments, we can get a better idea of what the company might be worth. (Read More)

Drilling For Oil In The Stock Market

Oil analyst Daniel Yergin’s book The Prize has been described as “the canonical history of the oil industry.” As a value investor, the part I found most interesting was the section on the 1980s oil price slump, when many oil companies traded for less than the value of the untapped oil and gas they owned underground.

In Yergin’s words, both oil companies and outside investors eventually realized it was ‘cheaper to “explore for oil on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange”—that is, buy undervalued companies—than to explore under the topsoil of West Texas or in the seabed of the Gulf of Mexico.’ Once investors realized this, they bought up oil company shares, causing them to rise to a price that better reflected the value of the companies’ underlying assets. Since value investing is all about buying a company’s stock for less than its underlying value, this story was unsurprisingly appealing to me.

Despite their recent decline, oil companies’ shares have not fallen by as much as they did in the 1980s. However, they have fallen by enough that it’s worth comparing companies’ share prices to the value of their reserves...(Read More)