Ellington Financial's Historical Value Creation May Offer Insights Into Its Future Returns

I just had my first article published on Seeking Alpha in over a year!

My most recent article analyzes Ellington Financial, Inc. (EFC), a real estate investment trust, or REIT that invests primarily in mortgage-related assets. In my article, I use the same methodology I've used in the past to analyze companies such as Crédit Agricole Du Languedoc and Sixth Street Specialty Lending to analyze Ellington Financial's historical value creation. By examining the company's net asset value (NAV) growth and annual dividends, I examine whether it might be a high quality company for investment... (Read More)

 

Credit Agricole Du Languedoc's Past Value Creation May Offer Insights Into Its Future Returns

I just had my first article published on Seeking Alpha in almost two years!

My most recent article was inspired by a message sent to me by a reader about my last article, which described how the publicly stated return on equity of the Crédit Agricole regional banks dramatically understates their profitability. Instead, he argued, a better way to analyze them is to look at their book value per share growth and annual dividends, the same approach I used in my previous articles about investment companies such as Anworth Mortgage, Dynex Capital, and Sixth Street Specialty Lending. 

After reading his message, I was inspired to write an article analyzing Credit Agricole Du Languedoc, one of the Crédit Agricole regional banks, using that methodology; you can check it out here.

500 Followers on Seeking Alpha!

I just hit the 500 follower mark on Seeking Alpha! 

Thank you to everyone, especially my readers, who helped make this possible!

The Impact of Local GDP Per Capita on the ROE of Crédit Agricole's Regional Banks

The Crédit Agricole group is not only the largest retail bank in France, but also the largest retail bank in the European Union. The Group consists of Crédit Agricole S.A., whose stock trades in the U.S. under the tickers (CRARY) and (CRARF), as well as a network of 39 regional Crédit Agricole banks, and a larger network of over 2,400 mutual banks. More than 11 million mutual shareholders own shares in the mutual banks, which themselves own shares in the regional banks, which in turn own over half the shares of Crédit Agricole S.A.

Of the 39 Crédit Agricole regional banks, 12 are publicly traded on European exchanges. Their shares have historically been cheap. One problem with investing in them, though, is deciding which ones to invest in. Since each Crédit Agricole regional bank operates in a different area of France with a different GDP per capita, I was curious if areas with higher GDPs per capita might have Crédit Agricole regional banks that earn higher returns. (Read More)

A Look At 'Gloomy Goldman's' 20 'Safety' Stocks

A recent Marketwatch article, titled “Gloomy Goldman offers 20 ‘safety’ stocks with valuations below the previous 2 bear markets,” listed 20 “safety stocks” that Goldman Sachs (GS) chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin proposed for a potential downturn. According to Kostin, the companies are not only large and have strong balance sheets, they are also cheap:

'…[their] price/earnings multiple after a 20% haircut to expected 2023 earnings is below the forward p/e at the bottom of either or both of the March 2009 and March 2020 bear markets.

“Importantly, given the different real interest rate environments, the highlighted stocks are more attractively valued today on a yield gap basis relative to the rest of the index than they were in either 2009 or 2020,” said Kostin and the team.'

A stock that is cheaper than in 2009 and/or 2020 does sound cheap! In that context, I looked at the list...(Read More)

A Look At Why World Acceptance Corporation's Stock Is Outperforming Its Peers

World Acceptance Corporation (WRLD) is an installment lender that generally makes loans at higher rates of interest to people with weaker credit. The company’s stock has performed strongly since the end of 2020, rising by around 112%.

At first glance, it seems obvious why the company’s stock has gone up. When COVID struck the U.S., many lenders feared a wave of defaults as borrowers lost their jobs and got sick. One April 2020 US News article described how “financial institutions around the world are bracing for consumers and businesses to default on outstanding loans.” Once investors realized that wave of defaults wouldn’t materialize due to government stimulus and a quick end to lockdowns in many states, it makes sense they would start buying the stock of lenders such as World. Moreover, we’ve seen a bull market in the past year, so it makes sense World’s stock would rise at the same time.

Though these arguments make sense, once we compare World to some of its peers, it becomes less obvious that they are the reasons for the stock’s rise...(Read More).

A Valuation Of Chesapeake Energy Based On Its Reserves

Happy New Year's Eve, everyone! I just had my first SeekingAlpha article published in over a year; I hope you all enjoy it!

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For many investors, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) needs no introduction. Under its founder Aubrey McClendon, the company pioneered the use of fracking to extract oil and natural gas from shale deposits. Later, in June 2020, the company went bankrupt. The company exited bankruptcy in February 2021 and its stock has risen since then by around 40%.

Historically, post-bankruptcy stocks have outperformed the market, which makes Chesapeake Energy’s stock interesting. To see if it might outperform the market, we need to know if the company is undervalued. We can know that by looking at its oil and gas reserves, which are the company’s ultimate source of value. If Chesapeake is trading at less than the value of its reserves, its stock may outperform in the future. (Read More)

Sixth Street Specialty Lending's Historical Value Creation May Offer Insights Into Its Future Returns

Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc. (TSLX) is a business development company, or BDC. The company primarily invests in companies with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA, between $10 million and $250 million, according to the company’s most recent earnings presentation. Almost all of Sixth Street’s investments are in the companies’ first-lien secured, floating-rate debt.

I recently wrote about another BDC, Prospect Capital (PSEC), that looks cheap because it trades at a steep discount to book value.

Sixth Street Specialty Lending does not look cheap. The company trades at a price to book ratio of around 106.5%, compared to the average P/B ratio for BDCs, which is around 83%. This means each dollar of stock buys only 93.9 cents in equity in Sixth Street, compared to around $1.20 in equity in the average BDC.

That said, as in life, in investing you often get what you pay for. In several recent articles, I’ve described two common types of investment opportunities:

1. High quality companies trading at a modest discount to intrinsic value.
2. More average companies trading at a much larger discount to intrinsic value.

In the long run, high quality companies compound an investor’s capital far more than average ones. To see if Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc. is a high quality company, we can use the methodology I used in my article about Prospect. We can look at how much value the company has historically created for shareholders. This will help us predict the company’s future value creation, and thus the company’s possibilities for future share price growth and dividends. (Read More)

Dynex Capital's Historical Value Creation May Offer Insights Into Its Future Returns

Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX) is a mortgage real estate investment trust, or mREIT. The company invests in mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, securities whose income is based on the performance of pools of mortgages.

I’ve written two recent articles about mREITs Ladder Capital (LADR) and Anworth Mortgage (ANH). Both those articles were written because those mREITs look cheap. Dynex Capital does not look cheap. The company trades at a price to book ratio of 94%. In contrast, Anworth and Ladder have, respectively, P/B ratios a little over 60%. The market certainly seems to think it is a higher quality company than other mortgage REITs, given how much higher its valuation is.

To see if Dynex Capital is a high quality company, we can use the methodology I used in my previous mREIT articles. We can look at how much value the company has historically created for shareholders. This will help us predict the company’s future value creation, and thus the company’s possibilities for future share price growth and dividends. (Read More)

Anworth Mortgage's Value Creation Since Its IPO May Offer Insights Into Its Future Returns

Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation (ANH) is a mortgage real estate investment trust, or mREIT. The company invests in residential mortgages as well as mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, securities whose income is based on the performance of pools of residential mortgages. Those securities include both agency-backed MBS whose performance is guaranteed by Fannie Mae (OTC:FDDXD) and Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC), as well as non-agency MBS whose performance is not guaranteed. According to the company’s most recent quarterly report, over 70% of Anworth’s investments were in agency MBS.

By several metrics, Anworth’s stock looks cheap. The company’s price to book ratio on August 13th was 63%. This means each share of the company’s stock trading at $1.81 a share corresponded to around $2.85 of the company’s equity. Anworth also has a dividend yield of around 11%.

In that context, Anworth’s cheapness raises a question. Is it a high quality company I can “buy and hold” forever while it compounds my investment?

To see if Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation is a high quality company, we can use the same methodology I used in my recent article about Prospect Capital. We can look at how much value the company has created for shareholders since its 1998 IPO. This will help us predict the company’s future value creation, and thus the company’s possibilities for future share price growth and dividends. (Read More)