Examining The Beer Industry Through Philip Van Munching's 'Beer Blast': The Quest For New Products

BeerBlast: The Inside Story Of The Brewing Industry’s Bizarre Battles For YourMoney is a history of the beer industry in the late twentieth century. Philip van Munching, the book’s author, was once the advertising director at his family’s company, the former US importer of Heineken (HEINY) (HINKF). Though the book was written almost two decades ago, I feel it still offers valuable insights, both for those interested in investing in the alcohol industry, as well as for investors in general. 

In my opinion, the most important lesson of Beer Blast is how dramatic the beer industry’s history has been. Alcohol companies have been portrayed as safe, “defensive” investments. The common wisdom is that they do well in any environment because demand for their products is persistent. That may be true, but Van Munching’s account demonstrates how even such defensive companies can be surprisingly chaotic. Defensive companies are often driven to innovate, change, and try to grow as much as their more volatile peers.

Beer Blast shows one example of this tendency by depicting the beer industry’s quest for new, disruptive products. When I read the book, I felt this pressure to innovate was stronger than I had expected of a “defensive” industry selling a product with an ancient history like beer. The book also shows how Anheuser-Busch (BUD), the leader in the US beer industry, has used its market position to be successful in this quest for product innovation. (Read More)

Understanding The Alternative Finance Sector Through Gary Rivlin's Broke, USA, Part 5 - Final Thoughts

In my article series about Broke,USA, journalist Gary Rivlin’s book on the alternative finance industry, I have written about the competitive advantages of an industry that lends money to those with few alternatives. However, I have also written about the risks of investing in such an industry, such as regulation, corporate misbehavior, and competition.

In doing so, some themes have come up again and again. Such themes have been, in my mind, valuable not only for alternative finance investors, but also for investors in general. They include the importance of pricing power and the threat of competition. They also include the strength of the pawnbroking model as well as the value of analyzing a company through its relationships with its lenders.

That said, one area of the alternative finance business which I have not discussed but which Rivlin goes into in much detail is the subprime mortgage business. I have intentionally not discussed that business, since much has already been written about it and its effects on the global economy in the past few years. That said, Rivlin’s book does have some interesting insights on subprime mortgage lending and how it relates to the broader alternative finance business, insights which I feel are useful for investors. (Read More)

Recent News From World Acceptance Corporation Indicates Worrying Operating Trends At The Company

In my most recent article, I discussed how installment lender World Acceptance Corporation’s (WRLD) current situation offers an opportunity to investors. In March 2014, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, or CFPB, sent the company a Civil Investigative Demand, or CID, asking about its lending practices. This caused the company’s shares to fall nearly 30% in the course of a few days.

Since then, the company’s share price has been roughly flat. As I put it in my last article, it is in a sort of “limbo”—too high if the company’s business model is illegal, as short sellers argue, but too low if the company is fundamentally sound. In the short run, this situation will only be decided when the CFPB releases the results of its investigation.

In the long run, however, if the CFPB does not shut down the company, World Acceptance Corporation’s share value will be governed by its operating results. Those operating results have shown some worrying trends over the past several quarters. (Read More)

Uncertainty About World Acceptance Corporation's Future Offers An Opportunity To Investors

In my most recent article, I described how installment lender World Acceptance Corporation illustrates the risks and rewards of investing in the alternative finance industry. On the one hand, the company embodies many of the industry’s best traits, such as rapid growth, high returns on investment, and pricing power. On the other hand, the company’s main business line of installment lending has come under increasing competition. Moreover, it has been accused of building its entire business upon the misbehavior of improper lending.

Most seriously, World Acceptance Corporation is currently under investigation by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, or CFPB. The company received a Civil Investigative Demand, or CID, from the CFPB in March 2014 asking for information about the company’s business practices. Some short sellers believe this investigation will lead to severe penalties, or even bankruptcy. On the other hand, it is possible that regulators will only give the company a slap on the wrist, such as a small fine, or let the company off altogether.

I believe the large distance between these two possibilities offers an opportunity for investors. (Read More) 

World Acceptance Corporation Illustrates The Risks And Rewards Of Investing In The Alternative Finance Industry

In my article series about Broke, USA, journalist Gary Rivlin’s book on the alternative finance industry, I have described how Rivlin illustrates both the risks and rewards of investing in the industry.

On the one hand, businesses such as payday lenders, pawn shops, and rent-to-own companies have strong growth opportunities, high returns on capital, and pricing power. On the other hand, such companies are affected by government regulation that threatens to curtail their returns or even shut down their businesses. This regulation is, of course, in part because the alternative finance industry has a reputation for corporate misbehavior, such as lending practices that encourage borrowers to enter a debt spiral. Finally, the many strengths of the industry have also drawn many competitors, who threaten to erode the industry’s once high shareholder returns.

Few companies illustrate these risks and rewards like World Acceptance Corporation (WRLD), an alternative finance lender that makes installment loans, generally to those with poor credit. (Read More) 

Understanding The Alternative Finance Sector Through Gary Rivlin's 'Broke, USA': Part 4 - Competition And The Price Of Gold

In my two most recent articles reviewing Broke,USA, Gary Rivlin’s book on the alternative finance industry, I have written about what are probably the best known threats to the industry: regulation and corporate misbehavior. I believe that many of those who refuse to invest in the alternative finance industry refuse because of those risks. They fear that government regulation, such as interest rate caps, will end the industry’s high returns. They are unnerved by the industry’s risk of misbehavior. Such misbehavior includes not only obviously illegal activities, such as fraud and illegal collections practices, but also questionable if legal activities, such as lending in ways that encourage borrowers to enter a debt spiral.

However, I believe that it is often not the obvious risks that are the most important to an investor’s returns, but rather the ones that people are unaware of. As I wrote in my article about regulation, alternative finance companies have consistently found ways to work around regulation. Even persistent accusations of misbehavior have not kept companies in the industry from outperforming the overall stock market year after year.

Rather, I believe it is the risk of competition, one that I feel many investors have failed to consider, which may be the most dangerous to the alternative finance industry’s returns. (Read More)

The Reason For The DFC Global Buyout, Or Why You Should Read Corporate Filings Carefully

In June 2014, US alternative finance company DFC Global (DLLR) agreed to be bought out by private equity firm Lone Star Funds for 1.3 billion dollars. The company made 280 million dollars in EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, in 2012, and at least 200 million dollars in EBITDA in each of the three years before the transaction. Thus, the deal was done at a price of somewhere between 4.6 and 6.5 times EBITDA. In an environment where companies generally trade at double digit multiples of EBITDA, this deal was unquestionably a bargain for Lone Star.

The purchase of DFC Global was a particular bargain because the company was not a declining enterprise that might deserve such a cheap multiple. In the company’s last investor presentation before the buyout, management trumpeted annualized revenue growth over the past nine years of over 15%, and annualized adjusted EBITDA growth of over 11%. It is noteworthy that such growth came despite a major slump in the company’s operations in 2013. That slump was caused by regulatory difficulties for the alternative finance industry in the United Kingdom, where DFC Global is the country’s largest pawnbroker. In its presentation, management argued persuasively that these difficulties were only temporary and that the company had significant long term growth prospects in the UK and the rest of Europe.

Thus, why did the same management allow the company to be bought out on the cheap mere weeks later, depriving shareholders of those growth opportunities? (Read More) 

Analysis Of An Alternative Finance Bankruptcy - Why Did Albemarle & Bond Go Under?

While doing research for my next article about Broke, USA, Gary Rivlin’s book on the alternative finance industry, I found an answer to a question that has always bothered me: Why did Albemarle & Bond (ABMLF), the British pawnbroker that was 30% owned by American alternative finance company EZCorp (EZPW), go bankrupt earlier this year?

The Consensus View

At first, it seems absurd to still be asking this question. (Read More)

Understanding The Alternative Finance Sector Through Gary Rivlin's 'Broke, USA': Part 3 - Corporate Misbehavior

In my previous article, I described how Broke, USA, Gary Rivlin’s book on the alternative finance industry, shows why regulation is the industry’s most prominent risk. Regulation is the industry’s best known risk because it can totally eliminate parts of the alternative finance business, especially payday lending. Moreover, the book also shows why such regulation is popular, describing many people’s visceral response to an industry that profits largely through high interest lending to the poor and middle class. As a result, support for the restriction or even illegalization of the industry is widespread and bipartisan.

However, in my opinion, Rivlin’s book also shows why regulation is not necessarily the threat to investors in the alternative finance industry that many believe it is. As I described in my previous article, the industry has consistently found ways to work around regulation, with the larger companies in the industry even turning regulation into a competitive advantage. Not only can the largest companies diversify from its riskiest parts, such as payday lending, but they can also gain market share from smaller operators, who are disproportionately affected by regulation related compliance costs. One company that has done this is DFC Global (DLLR), whose strategy was vindicated in June 2014 when it was acquired for $1.3 billion.

Instead of regulation, I believe that one of the most serious risks to investors in the alternative finance industry is actually corporate misbehavior. (Read More)

Update To Geoff Gannon RSS Feed

As you've no doubt noticed if you've been using it, the Geoff Gannon RSS feed I posted a while ago no longer works. The feed now provides all of Gurufocus' most recent articles rather than just Geoff's. I think the issue is that Gurufocus changed their format for the URL address of writer articles, so that the original URL now points to all of their recent articles.

Fortunately, Gurufocus now has a link below the author picture by each article that links directly to an RSS feed for the author's articles. This feed does the same thing as mine used to, but without the occasional errors, so rather than go fix my feed, I'm going to just provide a link to the new feed. Geoff's author RSS feed can be found at http://www.gurufocus.com/rss_2.php?author=Geoff+Gannon